Why Congress lost Haryana Assembly Election 2024
The 2024 Haryana Assembly Election delivered surprising results, with the Congress Party initially predicted to win, losing to the BJP. Several factors contributed to this unexpected outcome, including internal divisions, voter mismanagement, and the BJP’s strategic use of these weaknesses.
A significant reason was the internal factionalism within the Congress, particularly regarding ticket distribution. Kumari Selja, one of the most prominent Dalit leaders in the Haryana Congress, was marginalized during the candidate selection process. This exclusion was driven by the dominance of the Hooda camp, led by former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda. Despite her influence and the importance of Dalit votes in the state, the high command of Congress, including Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi, failed to address these internal conflicts or intervene in the decision-making process. This led to growing dissatisfaction within Dalit communities, which comprise around 20% of Haryana’s population and have significant sway over nearly half of the state’s assembly constituencies.
Congress should remember it’s not Chamcha Yuga
The Congress leadership’s failure to address the concerns of Dalit leaders and voters created an opening for the BJP. The BJP strategically pushed a narrative that Congress was sidelining Dalit leaders like Kumari Selja, which effectively worked in a key segment of the electorate. The BJP’s IT and ground teams worked to amplify this message, particularly in Dalit and lower OBC communities, highlighting Congress’ neglect of social justice in action despite its rhetoric at the national level. This narrative gained traction, particularly among Dalit youth, who were increasingly vocal about their political representation and leadership. This voter shift proved crucial. While Congress and the BJP secured nearly equal vote shares, the Congress lost a disproportionate number of seats due to poor ticket distribution and the alienation of key voter blocs, particularly Dalits. The emergence of figures like Chandrashekhar, who energized Dalit youth and gave them a sense of leadership and representation, further weakened Congress’ appeal in these communities. In the campaign’s final stretch, this shift became evident, as Dalit votes that had traditionally favoured Congress began to move towards the BJP.
The Rise of Non-dominant Caste Politics
Second, Another crucial factor in the BJP’s success in the 2024 Haryana Assembly Election is its consistent strategy of mobilizing non-dominant castes in Indian states. In the 2024 Haryana Assembly Election, the BJP dominated non-Jat regions like the Punjabi belt, GT Road, and Ahirwal, winning most of the 50-55 seats there. Meanwhile, Congress performed well in Jat and Muslim-majority areas, such as Mewat and the Bagar-Bangar belt, securing victories in 35-40 seats. This reflects the continued influence of caste and regional dynamics in Haryana’s politics. This approach has been central to the BJP’s electoral victories across various states, beginning with Gujarat, where the party effectively rallied non-Patel communities. In Maharashtra, it focused on non-Maratha voters; in Haryana, it successfully mobilized non-Jat groups. The BJP framed its narrative against Congress, accusing it of favouring only two dominant groups—Jats and Muslims—while neglecting the larger OBC, upper caste, and Dalit populations. This narrative resonated strongly, leading to the consolidation of these groups under the BJP’s banner.
Never Underestimate the Power of Present BJP
Third, Another reason for Congress’ defeat was its overconfidence and failure to assess the current strength of the BJP accurately. After performing well in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections by securing 99 seats nationally and winning five Lok Sabha seats in Haryana, Congress assumed it would easily replicate this success in the state assembly elections. However, it underestimated the BJP’s professional election management on the ground and through social media. The BJP’s well-organized booth-level strategies and targeted social media campaigns gave it a significant edge, catching Congress off guard and contributing to its loss.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Congress Party’s defeat in the 2024 Haryana Assembly Election can be attributed to internal dysfunction, strategic missteps, and underestimating the BJP’s election machinery. Factionalism within Congress, particularly the sidelining of key leaders like Kumari Selja, alienated critical voter blocs such as the Dalits, leading to a significant loss of support. Meanwhile, the BJP capitalized on this internal discord by successfully mobilizing non-dominant castes and framing Congress as a party that favoured only the Jat and Muslim communities. Additionally, Congress’ overconfidence after its success in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections led it to underestimate the BJP’s ground-level election management, including its effective use of social media and booth strategies. These factors combined to deliver a decisive victory for the BJP and a surprising loss for Congress.