All about Indian General Election 2024 Exit Poll
After a six-week marathon Lok Sabha election process, it is time to look at the exit polls. With anticipation high, twelve exit polls have painted a clear picture: a significant victory for the ruling BJP-led NDA is on the horizon.
Predicted Seat Distribution
According to the exit polls, the NDA is expected to secure a substantial number of seats. Here is a breakdown from each poll:
- India Today-Axis My India: 361-401 seats
- News 24-Today’s Chanakya: 400 seats
- ABP News-C Voter: 353-383 seats
- Republic Bharat-P Marq: 359 seats
- India News-D-Dynamics: 371 seats
- Republic Bharat-Matrize: 353-368 seats
- Dainik Bhaskar: 281-350 seats
- News Nation: 342-378 seats
- TV 9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat: 342 seats
- Times Now-ETG: 358 seats
- India TV-CNX: 362-392 seats
- Jan Ki Baat: 362-392 seats
Regional Wise Highlights
Regional Highlights
The exit polls also highlight NDA dominance in key regions of India:
-East and South India: Out of 220 seats, The NDA is predicted to perform better.
- West and North India: Out of 300 seats, the NDA strike rate can be around 90%. A significant setback is anticipated for the Indian alliance.
- West Bengal: The BJP is expected to improve its performance from the last election, potentially becoming the single-largest party in the state in terms of Lok Sabha seats.
Anticipated Return of Narendra Modi and the BJP
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, at 73, and the BJP are widely expected to secure a third consecutive term. For the 2024 elections, the BJP has set an ambitious target of 370 seats and, with its allies, aims to surpass the 400-seat mark. This comes despite challenges faced by the Congress, which electoral losses and a series of defections have hampered. Congress is part of the opposition bloc INDIA, challenging the BJP in this election.
In the 2019 elections, the BJP won 303 seats, and the NDA collectively secured 352 seats. In contrast, the Congress obtained 52 seats, with the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) reaching 91 seats.
What is an exit Poll?
How Are Exit Polls Conducted?
Exit polls are conducted to gauge the general voter sentiment during an election. These polls are based on interviews with voters immediately after exiting polling stations. Here is a closer look at how exit polls work and some notable instances when they missed the mark.
Methodology of Exit Polls
Exit polls involve a systematic approach to estimating election outcomes:
- Sample Selection- Pollsters select a representative sample of polling stations across various regions.
- Interviews- Voters are interviewed as they leave the polling station. The questions typically focus on who they voted for and why they chose.
- Data Analysis- The collected data is analyzed to project the likely election outcome.
Despite the meticulous process, exit polls are only sometimes accurate. Historical data reveals several instances where exit polls were significantly off the mark. Notable Instances of Inaccurate Exit Polls - 2004 Lok Sabha Elections- Banking on Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s popularity, the government called for early elections. Most exit polls predicted a comfortable victory for the BJP and its allies (NDA), estimating between 240 to 275 seats. However, the actual results were dramatically different. The NDA won only 187 seats, while the Congress and its allies secured 216 seats, forming the government.
- Bihar Assembly Elections (2020).- In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, most exit polls predicted a clear win for Tejashwi Yadav’s Mahagathbandhan. Contrary to these predictions, the BJP-JD(U) alliance emerged victorious, highlighting the unpredictability of voter behaviour.
- Bihar Assembly Elections (2015).- The majority of exit polls in 2015 failed to predict the decisive victory of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Janata Dal (United) (JDU), and Congress coalition. Many predicted a tight race leaning towards the BJP. However, the Grand Alliance won 178 out of the 243 seats, showcasing the inaccuracy of the exit polls.
- West Bengal Assembly Elections 2021-Prominent exit polls, including those by India Today’s Axis My India and Republic-CNX, positioned the BJP as the frontrunner in the 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections. However, the actual results saw Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress win 213 out of 294 seats, with the BJP securing only 77 seats.
- Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections (2017).- Most pollsters predicted a hung assembly in Uttar Pradesh during the 2017 Assembly elections, with the BJP recognized as the largest party. Contrary to these projections, the BJP achieved a landslide victory, winning 312 out of 403 seats, far exceeding the exit poll estimates.
- Delhi Assembly Elections (2015).- Exit polls failed to predict the Aam Aadmi Party’s sweeping victory.
Conclusion
While exit polls provide a valuable snapshot of voter sentiment and potential outcomes, they are not infallible. Historical instances highlight significant discrepancies between exit poll predictions and actual results, reminding us of the inherent unpredictability of electoral politics. As the official results for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections are awaited, the exit polls offer a glimpse but not a guarantee of the outcome.